Future Risk: Learning From History

There have been many profound events over the last hundred years. In 1912, the Titanic left Southampton for her one and only voyage, Harriet Quimby became the first woman to fly across the Channel, the Bolsheviks grew to prominence in Russia and the first Balkan War began. Since then there have been two world wars, revolutions in Russia and Eastern Europe, a cold war, the birth of the European Union, the end of the British Empire, further conflicts in the Balkans, an Asian financial crisis, the collapse of the World Trade Centre and the ‘Great Recession’...the list of defining moments is truly endless.

Against this background, the granting of our Royal Charter on the 5th of February 1912 seems relatively insignificant. Yet the study and application of insurance and financial services can help make sense of the world in which we live – indeed the history of the CII is entwined with many of the defining events themselves. In 1940 for example, after the fall of France, thousands of correspondence course books were sent to prisoners of war so that they could continue their studies. Remarkably, on three separate occasions CII examinations were actually held in prisoner of war camps.

A century on, and the world faces a fresh set of global challenges. The financial crisis and subsequent Eurozone sovereign debt problems, as well as the recent political paralysis in the US, suggest we are on the verge of a seismic change in the nature of the global economy and international relations. Similarly, continuing increases in population size and life expectancy, and changes in patterns of migration throw up their own vast array of political headaches and economic trade-offs which need careful management and strong collaborative leadership. And then there is climate change, and the increasing threat of catastrophic weather events that come with global warming. Each presents their own array of opportunities and threats – some of which are familiar and some of which are not.

Crucially, the insurance and financial services industry must be one step ahead in order to provide comprehensive insight into the changing nature of these challenges, and to recommend credible courses of action in the face of them. With this in mind and to coincide with our centenary year, over the course of 2012 we are publishing a series of reports which reflect on the great challenges of the past and explore what the future might hold. Most importantly of all, the CII’s publications will, through a multidisciplinary approach, seek to highlight some of the actions and choices we must all confront if we are to increase our chances of securing a world of greater security, health and prosperity in the decades to come.

About this report

This report is the first in a series of seven which marks the CII’s Centenary year as a Chartered professional body. It sets the scene by focusing on the past and present – the building blocks for any predictions about the future. It begins by discussing some of the key trends over the last century and the important lessons that can be learned from a careful historical analysis. It then reveals some preliminary findings from a global opinion poll into current perceptions of future risks before posing the question: are public perceptions appropriate, or are many worried about the wrong things? The historical analysis and survey results prompt us to start thinking about some possible futures for further investigation – the subject of our forthcoming reports.